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COMMENTARY: Transforming Analysis Below are some thoughts on the future of analysis. Those that sponsor conferences on analytic toolkits are generally about ten years behind the technology curve, and are perhaps not fully cognizant of the emerging changes in mind-set that will dramatically alter how we do analysis in the next ten years. Technology is not a substitute for thinking, nor is it a substitute for sourcing nor is it a substitute for good management. Old technology is counter-productive. If you are not integrating content-based routing, semantic web and synthetic information architecture, and federated super-sized distributed data systems that combine the best of P2P and scalable 100TB sense-making, you are not optimizing analytic productivity and analytic insight. |
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Part I: Get a grip on open sources, because the analysts, no matter how talented, are dependent on the breadth, depth, nuance, and timeliness of global coverage, 24/7. Everyone now agrees that all issues are transnational, and no one country or any one issue can be understood in isolation. Part II: Go multinational. It has been clear to me since 1986, when I was assigned a special project to think about the future of information collection and analytic implications of information, that no one country, much less any one agency, can "get a grip" on all the information that is available in all languages and all mediums. We have **no alternative** but to go multinational on most things, creating what J. F. Rischard (VP World Bank, author of HIGH NOON) calls "global issue networks" (see page 133 of NEW CRAFT). Part III: Change the parameters for hiring analysts. Instead of young people who can be easily cleared by security officers who want virgins for simplicity's sake, demand that all applicants for all-source analytic positions first be proven performers in the private sector. Being hired to be the all-source analyst for any issue should be the domestic equivalent of winning the Nobel Prize for one's domain. Part IV: Recognize the value of diversity in analysis, by adopting an open model for analytic deliberations. This does not mean that classified information should be shared outside the boundaries of the goverment, only that every analytic issue should be subject to the "wisdom of the crowds." Instead of competitive analysis by insular organizations with their own agendas, go for disruptive public integrative expansive alternative analysis, and let the chips fall where they may. Ten years down the road this has the following implications: 1) No tree will fall without being heard by someone and understood by multiples. 2) 80% of the secrecy that is now used to protect turf will vanish, as the mandarins realize that sharing, not hoarding, is the basis for valuation. 3) Governments will move to transparent reality-based budgeting that outs the corrupt and contains the special interests. 4) Peaceful preventive measures will vastly reduce the occurrences and costs of instability, while improving the quality of life of mankind overall. Morality matters. Diversity matters. Thinking Matters. The Golden Rule applies now more than even. |
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