THE INFORMATION AGE AND OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE:
National Security Through the Reinvention of
National and Defense Intelligence
Mr. Robert D. Steele, President, OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS, Inc.
(Adjunct Faculty for Intelligence, Marine Corps University)
National Senior Intelligence Course, Joint Military Intelligence Training Center
14 January 1994 Slide A: War and Peace in the Age of Information Transformation of War Transformation of Peace Cyber-War Information Peacekeeping The Role of the Warrior in the Age of Information
Slide B: "National Engagement: The Grand Vision" We At War With Ourselves and Everyone Else Prospects for a Lasting Peace are Dim Complexity and Porosity of Society Make Us Vulnerable to Individual Wild Cards Complexity of our C4I Networks Shifts Power to Individuals Need to Rethink Role of National and Defense Intelligence
Slides C: Conventional versus Emerging Threats General Alfred M. Gray, USMC Commandant American Intelligence Journal, 1989 Think About Intelligence Challenge
Slide D: Four Warrior Classes of the Future High Tech and Low Tech Brutes High Tech and Low Tech Seers Four Completely Different Intelligence Challenges
Slide E: Redefinition of National Security War versus Peace, Here versus There We Are Not Secure, Nor Will Our Children Be Secure What Kind of Domestic Intelligence Do We Need? Intelligence versus Decision-Support Public versus Private, Defense versus Enforcement Slide F: Borders Irrelevant, An Artificial Straight-Jacket Laws Are Out of Touch With Reality So Are Doctrine and Organization Need to Consider Paramilitary Support Packages, Nation Building at Home, International "Hot Pursuit" What Does This Mean for National/Defense Intelligence?
Slide G: Information Power Must Appreciate Power of Information for Operations Must Recognize LIMITED Power of Intelligence Today Consumer Mind: Less Than 10% from Intelligence Significant Issues Remain Unresolved: Legal: Copyright, Export Control Security: Public Encryption, Hacking Technical: Global Interoperability, Multi-Media Ethical: Who Has the Right to Spy? What IS Spying? Practical: How to Do More With Less--LEVERAGE!
Slide H: The Information Continuum "Intelligence" is But ONE of the Nine Sectors of the Information Continuum K-12, Univ, Lib, Bus, PI/IB, Media, Govt, DoD, Intel Consider, When National Security Has Been Redefined, What Other Sectors Might PRODUCE and CONSUME We Must Reengineer the Bunker to Leverage the Other Elements of the Continuum--"Distributed" Centers of Excellence for Encyclopedic Intelligence Examples: Jane's, Oxford, Economist IU, MIIS, NPS
Slide I: Open Source Intelligence and Coalition C4 Threat has Changed, Needs for Intelligence have Changed 80% of the Time We are Going to be In Coalitions, Supporting United Nations or Law Enforcement, or Engaged in Humanitarian Assistance Missions Existing Intelligence Structure Not Suited to Meet Needs (Superhighway with One Cadillac, Need Off Road...) 80% of the Time We Can't Get What We Need from Existing Intelligence Capabilities Warfighters are Screaming for OSCINT Newport Paraphrase Says It All! Two Examples: Non-Proliferation, War on Drugs Slide J: Open Sources and Methods The Threat Is No Longer Monolithic Threats and Opportunities Emerge Suddenly Cybernetics and Classification are in Conflict Business Community--Including the French--See This Also HOWEVER--Must Keep OSCINT in Perspective Joe Nye's Jigsaw Puzzle Analogy (OSCINT is the Outer Border, Classified the Inner Pieces)
Slide K: The Information Kill Zone Downside of the Information Age Challenge for the Warrior and the Peacekeeper Soft versus Hard Kill Reversible versus Irreversible High versus Low Impact Must Work With Operators to Establish Trade-Offs Between Collection Potential and Disruption Returns Better Yet, Collect Transmission and Block Reception
Slide L: C4I "Pyramid of Vulnerability" How to Take Down America and Get VERY Rich Overnight Take Out the Intelligence Communities' Downlink Antennas Eliminate Computer Time, Impacts on Precision Weapons Wipe Out Federal Communications, Take Out Power Grids Eliminate Wall Street Records (Electromagnetic Pulse Bomb) Take Down Critical Geographic C4I Choke Points Railroad Bridges Across Mississippi (3 Days Food) Two Panama Canal Locks (30-35% Trade) Alaska Pipeline (10% Oil) Charleston Harbor (Strategic Sea Lift Immobilized)
Slide M: "National Engagement": A National Knowledge Strategy Will provide for national security and national competitiveness in the Age of Information Intelligence Community Could Play a Very Important Role Elements are: Connectivity (Universal Access) Content (Put Substance Into the Information Commons) Culture (Enfranchise Immigrants as Templates or Translators) Coordination of R&D (Save 2-20 Billion a Year) C4 Security (Protect Civil Pathways for Military Comms)
Slide N: The International Commons Intelligence Burden Sharing Needs to Encompass OSCINT Every Nation and Organization has Something to Contribute "Victim" Nations (e.g. Somalia) can "Pay" with Information Major Opportunities for Cost Reductions and Increased Access Internet 10% of Cyberspace Cyberspace 10% of Knowledge--Lots of Oral History and Hard Copy Out There Slide O: Information Peacekeeping National and Defense Intelligence Have a VERY Important Role to Play Information & Intelligence Have Greater Import for Deterrence Civil Infrastructure and Intelligence Production Capabilities Must be Exploited and Defended Redefinition of Intelligence is Essential Distributed versus Value-Added versus Full Intelligence What Are We Missing Now (Intentions, Cultural, Logistics)
Slide P: From School House to White House: Creating a National Knowledge Strategy Elements of National Power Knowledge Terrain Preparation of the Information Battlefield Home Front (Rear Area) Achilles Heels Inner Space and Cyber-Space
For additional information, including a list of available unclassified publications and videos pertinent to OSCINT support to the warfighter, the reinventiion of intelligence, and establishment of a U.S. national knowledge strategy, communicate with:
International Public Intelligence Clearinghouse